Dark horses abound, but at PIR go with the lead horse

Phoenix International Raceway has less banking and is shorter than Texas, but this week the racing is going to be just as intense.

Jimmie Johnson showed the first sign of weakness at Texas when an ill-handling car sent him off the lead lap midway through the race. Crew chief Chad Knaus made repairs, but it was never enough to allow him to climb back onto the lead lap. That snapped a nine-race streak of complete races and gave him his worst Chase effort in 23 starts to the 2006 season.

Under the circumstances, a 15th-place finish is still a moral victory and would only be a footnote in this season's storylines if Carl Edwards had not won back-to-back events at Atlanta and Texas. Now we have a horse race. History still favors Johnson: no driver has ever overcome a point margin greater than 85 with two races remaining, but records exist because previous ones were broken.

The Favorites

Edwards will have his work cut out for him this week, because Johnson has been perfect at Phoenix. In his career, he's never finished worse than 15th on this track and as good as that is, he's only gotten better with time. Johnson's past six races have all been top-10s, his past four races have all been top-fives and his past two have been victories. He ran so well in this race last year, that his closest competitor, Jeff Gordon, came and bowed to him in Victory Lane and ceremoniously conceded the championship with one race remaining. Given last week's modest showing, Johnson and crew will redouble their efforts and be even more impressive this year.

You can tell that a driver loves a track when he puts in overtime there, and this week Kevin Harvick will race in all three of NASCAR's top divisions at Phoenix. He's been successful in each, as well, with two Craftsman Truck Series victories, one in Nationwide competition and two in Cup. In fact, in 2006, he nearly did a rare double-double by sweeping Victory Lane in both Nationwide and Cup in both race weekends held that year. He missed that extraordinary distinction by a single position when he finished second in the fall Nationwide race. Harvick stumbled slightly this spring and finished 19th in the Cup race, but there is no reason to assume that will happen again.

Jeff Gordon witnessed a five-race top-10 streak disappear this spring when he finished 13th, but that was his worst result in his past 14 Phoenix attempts and only the third-worst of his career. After limping home 35th with a crash-damaged car in his rookie season, Gordon has never finished worse than 17th on this track and all but three of his efforts since that day have been among the top 10. Until last spring, he had never won on this track, but it was still counted among his favorites in terms of average finishes. It has become increasingly difficult to imagine he will break his current winless streak, but with 10 top-15s in his past 15 starts of 2008, Gordon has earned a lot of fantasy points nevertheless.

Fast facts

What	Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500
When	4 p.m. ET Sunday
TV	ABC, 3 p.m. ET
Radio	MRN (Sirius Ch. 128), 2:45 ET

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Dark Horses

Not only does Edwards have Johnson's stellar record to overcome, he has his own personal demons on this track. He struggled to a 37th-place finish at Phoenix in his first attempt during a season in which everything seemed to go right on the unrestricted, intermediate speedways and last year, he failed to crack the top 10 in either race there. However, he will get a great boost of confidence from his fourth-place finish in this spring's duel in the desert, as well as his sweep of the top five in 2006. With how he's run all season, it's hard to imagine him stumbling this week. In fact, during the Chase, when he has not experienced crash damage, he's finished third or better.

Jeff Burton won back-to-back races on this track in 2000 and 2001 on the heels of a pair of fourth-place results in 1998 and 1999. One could say that this was his favorite track for a while. Since then, however, he has earned only one more top-five -- a third in 2005 -- but while he's failed to find ultimate success, he hasn't missed by much. Since 2002, he's swept the top 15 and that combines with his earlier successes to give him a 15-race streak of top-15s of which 10 are top-10s.

If you are looking for a true dark horse, Bobby Labonte will fit that description. Affordable in salary-cap games and overlooked in other contests, this has been one of his better tracks. Since 2004, he has earned one top-five, five top-10s and seven results of 18th or better in eight starts. This spring, he finished 12th, which made him one of the best values in the game.

Looking for an even darker horse? Watch Scott Riggs and Tony Raines closely in practice because the Haas CNC cars have been great on this type of track. Last April, Jeff Green in the No. 66 and Johnny Sauter in the No. 70 both recorded top-10 finishes on this dusty oval. They left Phoenix and later went to the New Hampshire -- a similarly configured track -- and swept the top-15 in the July race. Last spring, Raines was in the Hall of Fame Racing No. 96 at Phoenix and he finished respectably in 14th; Riggs has kept the tradition alive by scoring a top-20 at New Hampshire in the first Chase race of this season.

Fantasy Racing
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