Loop Data shows Johnson clear favorite to win title

If all was square, the statistics would favor Carl Edwards over Jimmie Johnson this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway. But Johnson owns a robust 141-point lead, and it will take a lot for Edwards to overcome the deficit.

Still, Edwards has some hope. His Roush Fenway Racing team has won the last four races at Homestead (and five of the last six). Plus, the most points Edwards has gained on Johnson in one race is 127, at Homestead in 2005. In that race, Johnson finished 40th and Edwards finished fourth. If Edwards had won that race, he would have gained 147 points -- six more than the deficit he now faces.

Edwards is strong at Homestead, and most of his statistics trump Johnson's. Below are his race-by-race results at Homestead since:

Johnson numbers are not as strong, but in the last two Homestead races, they didn't have to be. In 2006, Johnson needed only to finish 12th to clinch his first title. Last year, he needed to finish 18th. This Sunday, he needs to finish 36th. Below are his numbers from Homestead:

Regardless of how Sunday's Ford 400 pans out, Johnson and Edwards have both put on brilliant performances. Their statistics during the nine races of the Chase are phenomenal: